Question mark over Tirath Singh Rawat’s assembly by-poll

By Arun Pratap Singh

Dehradun, 22 Jun: With less than a year left for the term of Uttarakhand Assembly to end, question mark is being raised over the possibility of him contesting the Assembly by-poll in order to continue as Chief Minister beyond 9 September when he shall be completing his first six months as CM.  There are valid reasons behind the question mark being raised by Congress leadership as well as a section of the media.  However, the BJP’s state leadership looks confident to tide over the impending crisis.

It may be recalled that anyone appointed as minister or chief minister in a state should ideally be a member of the state assembly (or the state legislative council wherever it exists) or must get  elected to the state assembly within a period of six months from the period of assuming charge as a minister or chief minister as provided under Section 164 (4) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. Similarly, anyone appointed as minister in Union Government should ideally be a member of Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha or must get elected as a member of parliament within a period of six months from the date of assuming charge as a minister.  Tirath Singh took over as the chief minister of Uttarakhand on 10 March and would be completing six months on 9 September. In order to continue as Chief Minister of Uttarakhand beyond September, he needs to get elected to the state assembly before9 September. While there is one vacancy i.e. in Gangotri assembly seat caused due to death of incumbent MLA Gopal Singh Rawat due to Covid on 23 April, 2021, the fact remains that the seat too felt vacant within a period of one year for the term of the state assembly to end.  In fact yet another vacancy in the state legislature was created due to death of the Leader of the Opposition Indira Hridayesh (Haldwani).

Usually, the by-elections are not declared or held by the Election Commission of India if the assembly has less than one year of the term left. Herein lies the reason behind the question mark being raised by the Opposition as well as a section of the media.  There is a convention followed by the Election Commission that it does not declare byelection on seats where the term of the legislature concerned remains lesser than one year.

The Opposition is citing the provisions of Section 151(a) to claim that the bypolls can’t be held now as less than one year period of the term of the state assembly is left. Describing it a constitutional crisis, PCC Chief Pritam Singh has in very clear terms stated that Tirath Singh Rawat had lost an opportunity to contest the bypoll and continue as CM beyond September now. He goes on to claim that a constitutional crisis is bound to accrue due to this as the CM will not be able to contest by-poll and continue as CM.

It may further be recalled Assembly Bypolls were recently held on Salt Assembly seat in District Almora which had been won by the BJP candidate Mahesh Jeena comfortably. The question is being raised had it not been better had Tirath Singh Rawat contested this bypoll and become MLA. Now why did Tirath Singh Rawat not contest this seat is a matter of debate but it can’t be denied that it would have been safer and without controversy had Rawat chosen to contest poll from this seat and become a member of the House. Was the party complacent or did it fail to consider the fact that conventionally bypolls are not declared if the remaining term of the state legislature is lesser than one year?

Now let us see what exactly the provision is in this respect! Representation of the People Act, 1951 mentions that Time limit for filling vacancies referred to in sections 147, 149, 150 and 151.— Notwithstanding anything contained in section 147, section 149, section 150 and section 151, a bye-election for filling any vacancy referred to in any of the said sections shall be held within a period of six months from the date of the occurrence of the vacancy:

Provided that nothing contained in this section shall apply if—

(a) the remainder of the term of a member in relation to a vacancy is less than one year; or

(b) the Election Commission in consultation with the Central Government certifies that it is difficult to hold the by-election within the said period.

It is clear that the focus of this provision is to ensure that there is no vacancy remaining beyond a period of six months and that the Election Commission is bound to hold the by-polls within six months of occurrence of the vacancy unless of course if either the remainder of the term of the member to be elected is less than one year or the Election Commission decides and certifies in concurrence with the Union Government that it is unable to hold elections in view of any special reason.  A deeper reading of the provision would reveal that the Election Commission has not been barred from holding by-poll to a seat in a legislature the remainder of the term of which is less than an year. The convention says the elections are best avoided though there is no specific rule barring the Election Commission from holding the election if it chooses to declare it.  This correspondent recalls that in 2016, such a situation arose in Uttarakhand where some members had been disqualified. The case was heard in Supreme Court and then the Court or the Election Commission did not decide on holding the elections on the same ground that little term was left. However, the Election Commission had then made it clear that it was a convention not to hold polls under such circumstances but it would hold the elections if the Supreme Court chose to order the polls. Of course the Supreme Court did not order and the Election Commission did not also declare but it should be remembered that there was no demand from any quarters to hold the elections.

Speaking to Garhwal Post, BJP State General Secretary Suresh Bhatt admitted that conventionally the polls were usually avoided under such circumstances, there was no law that prevented holding of such bypoll. He said that the BJP was hopeful of contesting the by-poll and added that there would be no constitutional crisis.  BJP State President  Madan Kaushik too  claimed that the bypolls would be held and that CM Rawat would contest the by-poll adding of course that it was up to the Election Commission on when to hold the election.  Elections were usually held within 6 months of the vacancy and besides the fact that there were two vacancies in the state legislature, several other MLAs were also willing to vacate their seats for the CM to contest, he claimed.

While in the likelihood of the Election Commission declaring the bypoll, there was little chance that it would be challenged in the Court as the rules clearly make it a prerogative of the Election Commission to hold elections or not to hold on a seat if the remainder of the term of the House is lesser than one year. However, no one can deny that the decision would result in a political controversy.

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 उत्तराखंड में लॉकडाउन को लेकर इतनी झिझक क्यों?

अरुण प्रताप सिंह

पांच मई बुधवार को उत्तराखंड में 7783 कोरोना संक्रमण के मामले सामने आए। 1.2

करोड़ की जनसंख्या वाले इस पहाड़ी राज्य में जिस तेज गति से कोरोना की दूसरी लहर ने

पैर पसारे हैं, वह गहरी चिंता का विषय है। उत्तराखंड में कोरोना संक्रमण का इतनी तेजी से

प्रसार हो रहा है कि राज्य देश में कोरोना की उच्चतम संक्रमण दर (पॉजिटिविटी) वाले

राज्यों में शुमार हो गया है। उत्तराखंड में 28 अप्रैल से 4 मई, 2021 तक औसत संक्रमण दर

17.5 के स्तर पर रही। यहां तक ​​कि चमोली (22.3) और पौड़ी गढ़वाल जैसे दूरस्थ पहाड़ी

जिलों में भी संक्रमण की दर बहुत अधिक है। 28.6 प्रतिशत संक्रमण दर के साथ नैनीताल

संक्रमण दर में सबसे चल रहा है और इसके बावजूद वहां पर अभी तक कोरोना की टैस्टिंग

में तेजी नहीं आई है। नैनीताल में टैस्टिंग बहुत कम चल रही है। 28 अप्रैल से शुरू होने वाले

और 4 मई को समाप्त होने वाले इस पूरे सप्ताह में, नैनीताल में किए गए टैस्ट की कुल संख्या

सिर्फ 17,007 थी, जबकि इस सप्ताह के दौरान देहरादून में किए गए कुल टैस्ट 64,377 थे

और हरिद्वार में आयोजित किए गए कुल टैस्ट 84,675 थे। हरिद्वार सप्ताह के लिए 6.8

प्रतिशत पर सबसे कम संक्रमण दर जारी रखे है जबकि हरिद्वार में कुंभ के कारण सबसे

अधिक तेजी से कोरोना का प्रसार होने की आशंका व्यक्त की जारही थी। देहरादून चार मई

को समाप्त होने वाले सप्ताह के दौरान 25 प्रतिशत की उच्च संक्रमणदर दिखा रहा है, जिसका

अर्थ साफ है कि देहरादून में कोरोना की टैस्टिंग कम से कम दुगना करने की जरूरत है।

जिस तेजी से कोरोना ने पहाड़ी जनपदों समेत समूचे उत्तराखंड में पैर पसारे हैं, जाहिर है,

कोविड कर्फ्यू के रूप में करार दिया गया आंशिक लॉकडाउन महामारी के प्रसार की श्रृंखला

को तोड़ने के लिए पर्याप्त प्रभावी नहीं रहा है और ऐसा प्रतीत होता है कि श्रृंखला को तोड़ने

और महामारी के प्रसार को रोकने के लिए कम से कम एक पखवाड़े के लिए सख्त लॉकडाउन

की आवश्यकता हो सकती है। हालांकि, सरकार इतनी उच्च संक्रमणदर के बावजूद पूर्ण ताला

लगाने में संकोच करती दिखाई दे रही है। बुधवार को मुख्यमंत्री तीरथ सिंह रावत ने अपने

मंत्रिपरिषद के साथियों के साथ अनौपचारिक विमर्श किया पर इसके बावजूद राज्य में

संपूर्ण लॉकडाउन पर सहमति नहीं बन पाई। सूत्रों का हालांकि यह दावा है कि कई मंत्रीगण

राज्य में संपूर्ण लॉकडाउन के पक्ष में थे। सूत्र यह भी दावा करते हैं कि राज्य के कई वरिष्ठ

नौकरशाह भी कम से कम एक पखवाड़े के लॉकडाउन के समर्थन में हैं पर इसके बावजूद

सरकार का लॉकडाउन को लेकर इतना झिझकना समझ से परे है। यदि केंद्र सरकार की

गाइडलाइन पर नज़र डालें तो पता लगेगा कि केंद्र भले ही पूरे देश में लॉकडाउन के पक्ष में

नहीं हो पर जहां जहां भी संक्रमण दर दस प्रतिशत से अधिक हैं, वहां पर उसने राज्य

सरकारों को परिस्थितियों के मद्देनज़र लॉकडाउन की अनुमति दी है। इसके बावजूद

उत्तराखंड में लॉकडाउन को लेकर इतनी झिझक क्यों ? उत्तराखंड का पड़ोसी राज्य

हिमाचल भी 16 मई तक पूर्ण लॉकडाउन की घोषणा कर चुका है जबकि वहां पर संक्रमण

उत्तराखंड के मुकाबले काफी कम है और वहां पर भी भाजपा की ही सरकार है।

बुधवार देर शाम राज्य के तीन जनपदों देहरादून, हरिद्वार व ऊधमसिंह नगर में 10 मई तक

के लॉकडाउन की घोषणा जरूर की गई पर इतनी छोटी अवधि से संक्रमण की श्रंखला टूट

पाएगी, इसमें संदेह है। यह विचारणीय प्रश्न है कि कम से कम 16 मई तक के पूर्ण लॉकडाउन

की घोषणा क्यों नहीं की गई।

राज्य के स्वास्थ्य विभाग द्वारा बुधवार शाम को जारी स्वास्थ्य बुलेटिन से पता चलता है कि

पिछले 24 घंटों में 127 मौतों के साथ पिछले 24 घंटों में राज्य में कोरोना संक्रमण के 7783

नए मामले सामने आए। देहरादून में कुल 10,613 टैस्टमें से 2771 मामलों के साथ उधम

सिंह नगर के मामलों का नेतृत्व करना जारी रहा और इसके बाद केवल 2776 टैस्टमें से

1043 के साथ जिसका मतलब 37 प्रतिशत की संक्रमण दर रही। इतने कम टैस्ट क्यों किए

जा रहे हैं, यह सभी संबंधितों के लिए और विशेष रूप से सरकार के लिए बहुत चिंता का

विषय होना चाहिए। पूरे राज्य में, 43,489 नमूने बुधवार को टैस्ट के लिए प्रयोगशालाओं में

भेजे गए थे। उच्च संक्रमणदर को देखते हुए, टैस्ट को कहीं अधिक बढ़ाए जाने की आवश्यकता

है, लेकिन यह देखना होगा कि आने वाले दिनों में टैस्ट संख्या वास्तव में बढ़ाई जाएगी कि

नहीं।

एक सकारात्मक बात यह अवश्य रही कि बुधवार व गुरुवार को टीकाकरण अभियान ने फिर

से गति पकड़ ली है। बीच के कई दिनों में वैक्सीन की कमी के कारण टीकाकरण काफी

प्रभावित हो गया था। बुधवार को 42,268 व्यक्तियों के साथ कुछ गति प्राप्त की, अब राज्य

में आंशिक रूप से टीकाकरण करने वालों की कुल संख्या 17,01,989 तक जा पहुंची है और

पूरी तरह से टीकाकरण करा चुके लोगों की संख्या यानि कि उनकी संख्या जिन्हें दो टीके लग

चुके हैं, अब 480,484 हो गई है। पिछले दो दिनों लगभग दो लाख टीके राज्य को मिले हैं

तो उम्मीद की जानी चाहिए कि टीकाकरण राज्य में तेजी से होगा। हालांकि 18 से 45 वर्ष

की आयु के नागरिकों का टीकाकरण कब से शुरू होगा यह बताना अभी मुश्किल है पर माना

जा रहा है कि मई के पहले पखवाड़े के अंत तक इस वय के नागरिकों का टीकाकरण

अभियान शुरू हो सकता है।

Column- Being Politically Incorrect (1)

BJP's romance with Secularism

By Arun Pratap Singh

4 May 2021

BJP had tested power for the first time at the Centre in 1977 after it had merged itself with Janata Party on the call of JP Narayan. Of course, the BJP had then existed as political arm of RSS and by the name of Jansangh. Once Congress returned to power, BJP had to wait a good seventeen years to be able to come to power for a short time in 1996 and then again in 1999 till 2004 led by towering Atal Bihari Vajpayee. However, once it tasted success, it simply forgot that it was a Hindu Nationalist party and tried to project itself as much as possible as a secular party. Mohan Das Karamchand Gandhi may be respected across the globe and across the entire political spectrum in India and I see no harm in this, but the fact remains that no “true” Gandhian has ever supported or voted for BJP. It is those who remain concerned about the blatant minority appeasement in name of secularism who have voted for and supported the BJP. Vajpayee Government had given a reasonable governance but lost support of its own ideological supporters and lost the 2004 elections and power for next ten years. During this time, a Gujarat BJP leader Narendra Modi was becoming popular among the supporters of Hindutva ideology across the country and among the Hindus across the globe. He carried an image of being non compromising on Hindutva ideology. His slogan, “Development of All, Appeasement of None” carried lot of respect among the Hindutva followers. It was this support that propelled him to become the topmost popular BJP face at the national level. Despite the fact that Congress led by Sonia Gandhi and the entire liberal secular parties and the secular-liberal media spared no effort towards demonising him, they failed badly to prevent him from becoming the Prime Minister of India in 2014. He left no effort to be fair to the minorities and focus on some pro poor schemes to strengthen his popularity and even attempted his best to gain acceptance amongst the minorities especially the Muslims. However, in reality this did not earn him any significant support from the minorities which more or less continued to despise him. However, during the entire first five years tenure of the BJP led NDA Government, support of the Hindu ideological supporters remained almost intact. Some policies like demonetisation and the decision to bring Yogi Adityanath as UP CM further boosted his popularity among the Hindus for whom Hindutva remained an important issue. This was also the reason why he comfortably managed to retain power in 2019 general elections. First few months of his second tenure despite some economic setbacks for the country seemed like a dream run for his government for the ideological Hindus. Abrogation of Article 370 and Clause 5A further boosted his popularity among this class of Hindus despite a very strong and blind criticism of all secular parties and the entire secular media. This was not the only thing to happen during the first year of his second tenure as PM. The Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s announcement to bring CAA bill and getting it passed further boosted not only Modi’s image among the Hindutva supporters but also established an image of a tough home minister for Amit Shah. Not only this, the opposition parties were left startled and they indulged in misinformation and protests against the CAA as well as against the abrogation of Article 370!

However, a strong protest by the so called minorities somehow seemed to have weakened the resolve of Modi-Shah duo to continue being tough. Some bad international press further weakened the resolve of the PM and HM and they appeared to suddenly bend backward towards appeasement of the minorities. Despite fighting a tough battle on Hindutva lines in West Bengal, the resolve had gone weak somewhere and half hearted but full steam poll campaign in West Bengal left the prospective supporters in the state somehow suspect of the BJP and its chances to gain power and hence the BJP failed to get majority. It could not ensure consolidation of Hindus as Mamata managed to ensure consolidation of Muslim votes. She managed to consolidate even traditional Congress and Left supporters from the Muslims in her favour. Thus it became an unequal battle. 35 percent of consolidated votes easily defeated 70 percent of the divided votes. This should worry a lot of people about what they might have to face in the future across many states. One more factor played its role. In the 2019 general elections, BJP had managed to secure more than 40 percent of the popular votes in West Bengal. However, in the state assembly elections, this vote percentage has come down to 38 perent, whereas almost the entire political support base of the Congress and the Left shifted towards TMC which managed to secure almost 48 percent of the votes cast. Almost a nine percent difference. Why? Also because the BJP despite being in power at the Centre failed to protect its cadre in the run up to the State Assembly polls. More than 139 party workers were killed in the run up and the BJP failed to take any tough action against the Mamata Government. This weakness led many prospective BJP supporters to be scared of similar consequences and vote to TMC instead. This weakness of the BJP and its inability to protect its own cadres in West Bengal is evident in the on going post poll violence too. Despite large scale violence unleashed by TMC cadres, BJP Government at the Centre has failed to take any strict action against the Mamata Government.

It is clear that secret ambition of the top BJP leadership to gain acceptance and appreciation of White Intelligentsia in the West and to gain acceptance among the minorities, especially the Muslims will remain a pipedream. Continued efforts of the BJP leadership towards achieving this unachievable goal will only alienate its own cadres and supporters in the long run. The party needs to remember that somewhat aggressive Hindutva political sentiment arising out of Ram Mandir issue and promise of abrogation of Article 370 had propelled the BJP towards retaining power in 2019 general elections. While the Opposition continues to be weak, overturn of political fortunes can happen very very quickly. Few political pundits had given any chance of Congress to wrest power in 2004 general elections but it happened. BJP better be wary of any such possibility. Gandhigiri is not going to win any electoral battle for it in future too!